<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"><channel><title>Farmington - EdTribune NM - New Mexico Education Data</title><description>Education data coverage for Farmington. Data-driven education journalism for New Mexico. Every number verified against state DOE data.</description><link>https://nm.edtribune.com/</link><language>en-us</language><copyright>EdTribune 2026</copyright><item><title>59 New Mexico Districts at Record-Low Enrollment</title><link>https://nm.edtribune.com/nm/2026-03-12-nm-59-at-all-time-lows/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://nm.edtribune.com/nm/2026-03-12-nm-59-at-all-time-lows/</guid><description>New Mexico&apos;s public schools enrolled 298,353 students in 2025-26, falling below 300,000 for the first time in the state&apos;s dataset. That 2.7% single-year drop, a loss of 8,333 students, is the largest ...</description><pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded>&lt;p&gt;New Mexico&apos;s public schools enrolled 298,353 students in 2025-26, falling below 300,000 for the first time in the state&apos;s dataset. That 2.7% single-year drop, a loss of 8,333 students, is the largest outside the pandemic year that opened this decade of decline.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Fifty-nine districts are now at their lowest enrollment ever recorded in the state&apos;s dataset, which begins in 2015-16. That is 38.3% of all districts with multi-year data, and it includes nine of the state&apos;s 10 largest. The districts at record lows collectively enroll 78.7% of the state&apos;s students. Only &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/hobbs&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Hobbs&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, the seventh-largest district at 10,002 students, avoided the list among the top 10.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-03-12-nm-59-at-all-time-lows-trend.png&quot; alt=&quot;New Mexico enrollment trend, 2016-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Every major district, the same direction&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/albuquerque&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Albuquerque&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; has declined every year for a decade. Its 72,573 students in 2025-26 represent a loss of 19,579 from 2015-16, a 21.2% decline. The district now projects &lt;a href=&quot;https://nmeducation.org/albuquerque-public-schools-prepares-budget-amid-financial-challenges-and-enrollment-declines/&quot;&gt;fewer than 65,000 students&lt;/a&gt; on its internal enrollment estimates, which use a different counting window than the state&apos;s 40-day figures.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/las-cruces&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Las Cruces&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; is down 2,701 from its 2018-19 peak, a 10.9% loss. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/santa-fe&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Santa Fe&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; has lost 2,595 students (19.6%) over the same span, declining every year since. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/gadsden&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Gadsden&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; has shed 2,350 (17.3%), &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/roswell&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Roswell&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; 1,806 (16.9%), and &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/farmington&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Farmington&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; 1,380 (11.7%).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Three districts have declined every single year for a decade: Albuquerque, &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/socorro&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Socorro&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/taos&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Taos&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;. Santa Fe, Gadsden, and &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/pojoaque&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Pojoaque&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; are on eight-year streaks. No traditional district of any size has been immune.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-03-12-nm-59-at-all-time-lows-losers.png&quot; alt=&quot;Districts farthest below their peak enrollment&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Gallup disruption&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The largest single-district collapse in 2025-26 belongs to &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/gallup&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Gallup&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, which lost 3,342 students in one year, a 26.2% drop from 12,737 to 9,395. This was not a gradual decline. Gallup-McKinley County Schools terminated its contract with virtual learning provider Stride Inc. in May 2025, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.cibolacitizen.com/news/parents-left-limbo-gallup-mckinley-schools-terminate-virtual-learning-contract-amid-ethics&quot;&gt;displacing thousands of online students&lt;/a&gt; who had been enrolled through the district&apos;s Destinations Career Academy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The state&apos;s Public Education Department later attributed a &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.primepublishers.com/new-mexico-education-department-faces-35m-shortfall-due-to-overpayment-to-gallup-schools/article_fcbad998-f203-5da3-9df9-762bf1f32d84.html&quot;&gt;$35 million budget shortfall&lt;/a&gt; to the arrangement, because Gallup continued drawing state funding based on prior-year enrollment for students it no longer served. The state legislature passed an emergency bill to recoup the overpayment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Without Gallup&apos;s virtual school collapse, the statewide drop would have been roughly 5,000, still larger than either the 1,875 loss in 2022-23 or the 4,211 loss in 2024-25. Gallup&apos;s situation illustrates how virtual enrollment, counted through a single district, can distort statewide figures in both directions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The acceleration beneath the surface&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Even setting aside the Gallup anomaly, the trend is worsening. The 2023-24 loss of 5,581 students had no such distortion, and it alone dwarfs the 1,300-to-2,700 annual declines that characterized the pre-pandemic years. The state lost 14,323 students in the COVID year of 2020-21, and enrollment has never recovered. New Mexico has declined in 10 of the 11 years in the dataset, with only 2021-22 showing a negligible gain of four students.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-03-12-nm-59-at-all-time-lows-yoy.png&quot; alt=&quot;Year-over-year enrollment changes&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The record-low count has jumped. After holding in the range of 43 to 50 districts from 2022 through 2025, it jumped to 59 in 2026, the highest since the COVID year of 2020-21, when 72 districts hit lows.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-03-12-nm-59-at-all-time-lows-byear.png&quot; alt=&quot;Districts at record low enrollment by year&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The demographic undertow&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The structural driver is demographic. &lt;a href=&quot;https://news.unm.edu/news/new-mexico-population-projections-an-aging-population-and-minimal-growth&quot;&gt;University of New Mexico population projections&lt;/a&gt; estimate the state&apos;s 0-to-24 population will decline 20% over 20 years, reaching approximately 550,000 by 2040. Births have fallen steadily since 2008. Deaths now exceed births annually, a reversal that began in 2020 and has persisted. The state&apos;s total population peaked near 2.11 million and is projected to begin declining after 2035.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Our population is experiencing a rapidly changing age structure... declining number of children and emerging adults.&quot;
— &lt;a href=&quot;https://news.unm.edu/news/new-mexico-population-projections-an-aging-population-and-minimal-growth&quot;&gt;UNM Geospatial and Population Studies, 2024&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Domestic out-migration compounds the birth rate decline. New Mexico lost a net 6,000 residents to other states since 2020, partially offset by international migration of about 12,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The &lt;a href=&quot;https://riograndefoundation.org/new-mexicos-stark-decline-in-public-school-enrollment/&quot;&gt;Rio Grande Foundation&lt;/a&gt; has characterized the enrollment decline as among the worst nationally, noting that only California and Hawaii face steeper projected declines. The foundation argues that state investments in universal pre-K and tuition-free college have not stemmed the outflow of young families.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Whether the decline is primarily birth-rate-driven or migration-driven, or some combination, is difficult to disentangle from enrollment data alone. Both mechanisms produce the same pattern: fewer children entering kindergarten, smaller cohorts moving through each grade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Charters grew, then stalled&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The charter sector has been the primary counterweight to traditional district losses. Charter enrollment grew from 13,534 in 2018-19 to 22,242 in 2024-25, nearly doubling its share from 4.0% to 7.3% of statewide enrollment. But in 2025-26, charter enrollment dipped for the first time, falling to 21,734, a loss of 508 students.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-03-12-nm-59-at-all-time-lows-charter.png&quot; alt=&quot;Charter sector enrollment, 2019-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Among districts at all-time highs in 2026, 22 of 24 with multi-year data are charter schools. Among those at all-time lows, 50 of 59 are traditional districts. The sector divergence is unmistakable, but it is also reaching a ceiling. The total number of charter entities dropped from 58 to 57 in 2025-26, and several established charters lost students alongside their traditional counterparts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The small-district squeeze&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Of the 59 districts at record lows, 31 enroll fewer than 500 students. These micro-districts, scattered across rural New Mexico from the Sangre de Cristos to the Bootheel, face a compounding problem: each lost student represents a larger share of the budget, and there are fewer remaining programs to consolidate.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/espanola&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Espanola&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; has lost 30.2% from its peak, falling from 3,555 to 2,480. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/las-vegas-city&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Las Vegas City&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; has lost 32.1%. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/central&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Central&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Consolidated, serving a large Native American population in the Four Corners region, has shed 28.4%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In percentage terms, the hardest-hit mid-sized districts have lost roughly a quarter to a third of their enrollment in seven years. These are not gradual shifts that can be managed through attrition. They represent the closure of grade-level sections, the consolidation of buildings, and the elimination of electives.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Only 17 traditional districts grew between 2018-19 and 2025-26, and most of those gains were modest. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/loving&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Loving&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; and Tularosa each added 121 students over that span. No traditional district in the state added more than that.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What the next count will reveal&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 300,000 threshold New Mexico crossed this year is symbolic, but the fiscal mechanics are not. State Equalization Guarantee funding follows enrollment counts. APS alone faces a &lt;a href=&quot;https://nmeducation.org/albuquerque-public-schools-prepares-budget-amid-financial-challenges-and-enrollment-declines/&quot;&gt;$2.5 million SEG reduction&lt;/a&gt; from a single year&apos;s decline, even as the district approved its &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.abqjournal.com/news/article_1d3700a1-a918-4620-8afe-d407717421da.html&quot;&gt;largest budget in history at $2.25 billion&lt;/a&gt;, driven by rising per-pupil costs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The &lt;a href=&quot;https://nmeducation.org/six-years-after-yazzie-martinez-ruling-gaps-remain/&quot;&gt;Yazzie/Martinez court order&lt;/a&gt; found the state was denying at-risk students their constitutional right to a sufficient education. The legislature has responded with &lt;a href=&quot;https://nmeducation.org/six-years-after-yazzie-martinez-ruling-gaps-remain/&quot;&gt;$1.6 billion in additional recurring funding&lt;/a&gt; since the ruling, a 58% increase. Yet only 38% of students read at grade level. The 59 districts at their smallest ever recorded are being asked to do more with less, or more precisely, to do more with more money for fewer students, a formula that works until it does not.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
</content:encoded></item><item><title>Six Years After COVID, 93 Districts Still Haven&apos;t Recovered</title><link>https://nm.edtribune.com/nm/2026-02-12-nm-covid-nonrecovery/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://nm.edtribune.com/nm/2026-02-12-nm-covid-nonrecovery/</guid><description>The pandemic was supposed to be a temporary shock. Albuquerque lost 6,684 students between 2019 and 2021, an extraordinary loss for any two-year period. But the five years since have been worse: APS s...</description><pubDate>Thu, 12 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded>&lt;p&gt;The pandemic was supposed to be a temporary shock. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/albuquerque&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Albuquerque&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 6,684 students between 2019 and 2021, an extraordinary loss for any two-year period. But the five years since have been worse: APS shed another 10,983 students after schools fully reopened, bringing the district to 72,573, a 19.6% decline from its 2019 enrollment. The COVID crater, it turns out, was just the first drop on a much longer fall.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;New Mexico enrolled 298,353 students in 2025-26, down 36,778 from its 2019 total of 335,131. That is an 11.0% decline in seven years. The state has not recovered a single net student since the pandemic. It has lost more.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The gap that kept growing&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-02-12-nm-covid-nonrecovery-trend.png&quot; alt=&quot;New Mexico enrollment trend showing widening gap from 2019 baseline&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The state was already declining before COVID. Between 2016 and 2019, New Mexico lost 4,482 students, about 1,500 per year. Then the pandemic hit, and enrollment fell by 14,323 in a single year (2020-21), the largest one-year drop in the dataset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What followed was not recovery. In 2021-22, the state added four students statewide. Four. Then the losses resumed: 1,875 in 2022-23, 5,581 in 2023-24, 4,211 in 2024-25, and 8,333 in 2025-26. The post-COVID losses (19,996 students since 2021) now exceed the pandemic-era losses (16,782 students from 2019 to 2021) by 19%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-02-12-nm-covid-nonrecovery-yoy.png&quot; alt=&quot;Year-over-year enrollment changes showing persistent losses&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Only 43 of 136 districts (31.6%) have returned to their 2019 enrollment levels. That rate has declined steadily: in 2020, 51.1% of districts were above their 2019 mark. By 2023, it was 34.8%. By 2026, it fell to 31.6%. Each year, a few more districts slip below their pre-COVID line and do not come back.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The weight falls on a few shoulders&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Statewide losses are concentrated to a degree that is unusual even among declining states. Five districts account for 74.4% of the total gap: Albuquerque (-17,667), &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/las-cruces&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Las Cruces&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (-2,701), &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/santa-fe&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Santa Fe&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (-2,595), &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/gadsden&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Gadsden&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (-2,350), and &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/gallup&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Gallup&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; (-2,053). APS alone accounts for 48.0% of the state&apos;s entire loss.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-02-12-nm-covid-nonrecovery-districts.png&quot; alt=&quot;Top district losers and gainers since 2019&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;APS&apos;s trajectory has no inflection point. The district enrolled 90,240 students in 2019, and has declined every year since: 89,543, then 83,556, 82,321, 80,362, 76,870, 75,040, and now 72,573. At its current pace, APS will enroll fewer than 65,000 students within three years of a district that held 92,152 a decade ago. City Desk ABQ &lt;a href=&quot;https://citydesk.org/2024/what-to-expect-aps-board-to-discuss-dropping-enrollment/&quot;&gt;reported in 2024&lt;/a&gt; that the enrollment variance in 2023-24 resulted in a $2.5 million reduction in State Equalization Guarantee revenue from the state.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The size gradient is severe. Not a single district enrolling more than 2,000 students in 2019 has recovered to its pre-COVID level. Zero of nine large districts (10,000+). Zero of 20 mid-size districts (2,000-10,000). Recovery is limited to smaller entities: 36.7% of districts between 500 and 2,000 students, and 40.0% of districts under 500.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Where the students went&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For most districts, COVID was not the cause. It was the accelerant. The post-pandemic period has been worse than the pandemic itself for 49 of 134 districts (excluding Santa Rosa and Chama Valley, which show counting methodology changes).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-02-12-nm-covid-nonrecovery-scatter.png&quot; alt=&quot;Scatter plot of COVID-era vs post-COVID losses by district&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nmlegis.gov/Entity/LFC/Documents/Program_Evaluation_Reports/Policy%20Spotlight%20-%20State%20Population%20Trends.pdf&quot;&gt;New Mexico Legislative Finance Committee&lt;/a&gt; identified the underlying mechanics in a 2021 policy spotlight: the state&apos;s birth rate fell 19% between 2010 and 2019, producing 16.4% fewer young children than a decade prior. That translates to roughly 5,900 fewer births per year flowing into the school system. At the same time, the working-age population declined 2% while the over-65 population grew 38%. New Mexico&apos;s 2.8% total population growth from 2010 to 2020 was driven almost entirely by aging, not by families.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Our population is aging, which contributes to lower fertility in the state overall and school enrollment has declined in large part because our child population has declined.&quot;
-- &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.ksfr.org/education/2022-09-21/new-mexico-grade-school-population-dropping&quot;&gt;Jacqueline Miller, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies, KSFR, Sept. 2022&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The LFC report found that 43% of families whose students disenrolled during the 2020-21 school year cited moving out of state as the reason. New Mexico took &lt;a href=&quot;https://ballotpedia.org/School_responses_in_New_Mexico_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic&quot;&gt;one of the nation&apos;s most aggressive approaches to COVID-19 school closures&lt;/a&gt;, ordering schools closed on March 16, 2020 and not authorizing full-time in-person return until April 2021, more than a year later. During that period, LFC staff heard &quot;numerous anecdotal accounts of parents moving out of state to enroll their children in neighboring state schools.&quot; The LFC estimated only 55% of students who disenrolled during 2021 were likely to return.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The remaining disenrollment breaks down among homeschooling (17.4%), re-enrollment in a private or charter school (14.4%), and students dropped for non-attendance (12.0%), according to the NM Public Education Department survey cited in the LFC report.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The charter divide&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Charter schools occupy a separate universe in the recovery data. Among charters, 23 of 43 (53.5%) have recovered to 2019 levels. Among traditional districts, only 18 of 91 (19.8%) have.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-02-12-nm-covid-nonrecovery-sector.png&quot; alt=&quot;Recovery rates by sector&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The gap goes beyond recovery rates. The traditional sector lost 47,277 students between 2019 and 2026; the charter sector gained 3,172. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/explore-academy&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Explore Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; grew from 441 to 1,418 students. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/mission-achievement-and-success&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Mission Achievement and Success&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; went from 1,167 to 1,898. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/hozho-academy&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Hozho Academy&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; expanded from 123 to 852. These are not districts recovering lost ground. They are schools that grew through the pandemic and kept growing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Part of the charter recovery advantage reflects size: most charters are small enough to fall into the categories where recovery is more common. But sector identity matters beyond size. Traditional districts under 500 students recovered at 40.0%, while charters of all sizes recovered at 53.5%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That growth does not offset the traditional losses. Charter enrollment statewide totals 15,753, less than one-fifth of the 47,277 lost by traditional districts. The charter sector is growing, but it is absorbing a fraction of the students leaving, not replacing them. Most of the decline reflects students who left the state&apos;s public system entirely.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/espanola&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Espanola&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; and the rural collapse&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The percentage declines in smaller districts are more severe than the headline numbers from Albuquerque. Espanola lost 30.2% of its enrollment since 2019, falling from 3,555 to 2,480. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/central&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Central&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; Consolidated dropped 28.4%, from 5,893 to 4,219. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/las-vegas-city&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Las Vegas City&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; declined 32.1%, from 1,512 to 1,026. These are districts where losing 500 students means losing an entire elementary school&apos;s worth of enrollment and the staffing allocation that comes with it.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Gallup presents a special case. The district actually gained students during the pandemic (from 11,448 in 2019 to 12,418 in 2021), one of the few large districts to do so. But in 2025-26, Gallup dropped to 9,395, a loss of 3,023 from its 2021 level. The 2026 figure represents a restructuring event that warrants further investigation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/farmington&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Farmington&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 1,380 students (11.7%), and &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/rio-rancho&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Rio Rancho&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 1,318 (7.5%), suggesting that the decline extends beyond the urban core and the poorest rural districts into the state&apos;s suburban and mid-size communities.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The bottom is not in sight&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;New Mexico&apos;s public school enrollment has not reached bottom. The state&apos;s birth rate, already 19% below its 2010 level, continued to decline after the pandemic. The LFC projected in 2021 that the number of high school graduates would fall 22% by 2037. The 0-to-14 age group is projected to shrink by 10.2% between 2020 and 2040, according to &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nmlegis.gov/Entity/LFC/Documents/Program_Evaluation_Reports/Policy%20Spotlight%20-%20State%20Population%20Trends.pdf&quot;&gt;UNM Geospatial and Population Studies projections&lt;/a&gt; cited in the LFC report.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 2025-26 loss of 8,333 students is the second-largest single-year decline in the dataset, behind only the pandemic year of 2020-21. If the state loses students at even half that pace, enrollment will fall below 280,000 within four years, a level not seen since the early 2000s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The budget hit is direct. At approximately &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/albuquerque-public-school-enrollment-drops-again/&quot;&gt;$11,000 per pupil in state funding&lt;/a&gt;, the 36,778-student gap since 2019 represents over $400 million in annual revenue that no longer flows to district budgets. APS CFO Renette Apodaca &lt;a href=&quot;https://nmeducation.org/albuquerque-public-schools-prepares-budget-amid-financial-challenges-and-enrollment-declines/&quot;&gt;told NM Education&lt;/a&gt; that the district is &quot;currently identifying essential areas that require funding and exploring alternative funding sources for key initiatives.&quot; Despite enrollment falling by more than 20,000 since 2016, APS approved a budget of almost $2.2 billion for 2024-25, its largest ever. That budget assumed a 2% enrollment decline. The actual decline was 3.3%. Every percentage point of miss costs roughly $2.5 million in state formula funding that has already been spent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
</content:encoded></item><item><title>New Mexico&apos;s 2026 Enrollment Drop Is the Second-Largest on Record</title><link>https://nm.edtribune.com/nm/2026-01-22-nm-2026-cliff/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://nm.edtribune.com/nm/2026-01-22-nm-2026-cliff/</guid><description>Last year, New Mexico&apos;s enrollment appeared to be stabilizing. The state lost 4,211 students in 2024-25, a fraction of the COVID-era crash, and superintendents could reasonably hope the worst had pass...</description><pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded>&lt;p&gt;Last year, New Mexico&apos;s enrollment appeared to be stabilizing. The state lost 4,211 students in 2024-25, a fraction of the COVID-era crash, and superintendents could reasonably hope the worst had passed. It had not. In 2025-26, the state lost 8,333 students, about twice the prior year&apos;s decline, dropping total public school enrollment to 298,353. New Mexico has fallen below 300,000 students for the first time in at least a decade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The loss is the second-largest single-year decline on record, behind only the pandemic crash of 2020-21, which erased 14,323 students in one year. But unlike the COVID drop, which had a clear external cause and prompted a partial rebound, the 2026 cliff arrived without a triggering event. It is the product of compounding structural forces that have now cost the state 41,260 students, a 12.1% decline, since enrollment peaked at 339,613 in 2015-16.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-01-22-nm-2026-cliff-trend.png&quot; alt=&quot;New Mexico total enrollment, 2016-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A year of false calm&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 2025 numbers had offered a misleading signal. After losing 5,581 students in 2023-24, the apparent deceleration to -4,211 in 2024-25 suggested New Mexico might settle into the slow bleed that characterized the pre-COVID era, when the state lost an average of 1,735 students per year. Instead, the 2026 data revealed a post-COVID enrollment regime that is running 2.3 times faster than the old normal: since 2021-22, New Mexico has lost an average of 3,999 students per year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The four-year period from 2022-23 through 2025-26 accounts for 20,000 lost students, nearly half the state&apos;s total decline since 2016.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-01-22-nm-2026-cliff-yoy.png&quot; alt=&quot;Year-over-year enrollment change, 2017-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Gallup distortion&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One district explains 40% of the statewide loss, and the story behind it is not about demographics. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/gallup&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Gallup-McKinley County Schools&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 3,342 students in a single year, a 26.2% drop, after the district&apos;s board voted in May 2025 to terminate its contract with Stride, Inc. (formerly K12), a publicly traded virtual education provider. The cancellation displaced roughly 3,000 students statewide who had been enrolled in the district&apos;s online program.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Those students did not vanish from New Mexico&apos;s schools. Two small districts, Santa Rosa Consolidated and Chama Valley ISD, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gallup-mckinley-county-schools-clarifies-state-education-funding-process-302641671.html&quot;&gt;each absorbed approximately 1,500 of the affected students&lt;/a&gt; into their own virtual programs. The accounting is visible in the enrollment data: Santa Rosa jumped from 572 to 2,122 students, and Chama Valley from 280 to 1,866. Both are excluded from the district-level analysis here because their gains reflect student transfers between virtual providers, not organic growth.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The broader fallout has been substantial. Because New Mexico funds districts based on prior-year enrollment, Gallup-McKinley continued drawing state money for students it no longer served. The Public Education Department faced a &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.krqe.com/news/new-mexico/new-mexico-lawmakers-look-for-way-to-not-cut-services-for-school-district-slated-to-lose-portion-of-state-funding/amp/&quot;&gt;$40 million budget shortfall&lt;/a&gt; because Gallup retained the funds while litigating against Stride, and the state simultaneously had to pay the receiving districts for the same students, prompting an emergency legislative response during the 2026 session. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed Senate Bill 19 to give state officials additional time to determine the overpayment amount and develop a recovery plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Superintendent Mike Hyatt framed the decision to cut ties with Stride as protective:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;It was our students that were taken advantage of. They&apos;re the ones -- whether they know it or not -- that were harmed in this. And that just makes me sick inside that a company did this on our watch.&quot;
-- &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-mexico-school-district-stride-k12-virtual-education-rcna222598&quot;&gt;NBC News, January 2026&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Even without Gallup, the cliff is real&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Strip Gallup&apos;s 3,342-student loss from the statewide total and New Mexico still lost 4,991 students, a figure that would rank as the state&apos;s third-largest annual decline after the COVID year and the 2024 drop of 5,581. The decline is broad. Ninety-eight districts lost students in 2025-26, while only 49 gained. The top five losers accounted for 60% of total district-level losses.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-01-22-nm-2026-cliff-losers.png&quot; alt=&quot;Largest district enrollment losses, 2025-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/albuquerque&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Albuquerque Public Schools&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 2,467 students, a 3.3% decline, extending a streak that has cost the district 19,579 students since 2016. That is a 21.2% decline over 11 years. APS now enrolls 72,573 students and accounts for 24.3% of the state&apos;s total enrollment, down from 27.1% a decade ago. Despite educating fewer students each year, the district&apos;s board &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.abqjournal.com/news/article_1d3700a1-a918-4620-8afe-d407717421da.html&quot;&gt;approved a record $2.25 billion budget&lt;/a&gt; for 2025-26, a $104 million increase, pushing per-pupil spending to approximately $35,000.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-01-22-nm-2026-cliff-abq.png&quot; alt=&quot;Albuquerque Public Schools enrollment, 2016-2026&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The losses extend beyond Albuquerque. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/las-cruces&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Las Cruces&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 553 students (-2.4%), &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/santa-fe&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Santa Fe&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 551 (-4.9%), &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/gadsden&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Gadsden&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 469 (-4.0%), and &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/farmington&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Farmington&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 349 (-3.2%). Santa Fe&apos;s 4.9% single-year decline stands out as the sharpest percentage loss among the state&apos;s major districts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sixty-two of 154 districts, or 40.3%, hit all-time enrollment lows in 2025-26. Only 34.3% of districts have recovered to their pre-COVID enrollment levels.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Fewer children, fewer families&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The structural driver underneath the year-to-year volatility is demographic. New Mexico&apos;s birth rate has been declining since 2008, and the state now has &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nmlegis.gov/Entity/LFC/Documents/Program_Evaluation_Reports/Policy%20Spotlight%20-%20State%20Population%20Trends.pdf&quot;&gt;16.4% fewer young children than it did a decade ago&lt;/a&gt;, a steeper drop than the national decline of 9.6%. Deaths exceeded births for the first time in 2020 and have continued to do so each year since.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Population projections from the &lt;a href=&quot;https://news.unm.edu/news/new-mexico-population-projections-an-aging-population-and-minimal-growth&quot;&gt;University of New Mexico&apos;s Geospatial and Population Studies department&lt;/a&gt; forecast the state&apos;s youth population (ages 0-24) will fall to 550,000 by 2040, a 20% decline over two decades. The state&apos;s total population is expected to peak at 2.16 million around 2035 before beginning to contract, driven almost entirely by growth among residents age 65 and older.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Domestic migration has been negative since 2012, with international migration providing the only offset. Rural counties face the steepest projections: Mora, De Baca, and Hidalgo counties could lose more than 40% of their populations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The new normal runs faster&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2026-01-22-nm-2026-cliff-acceleration.png&quot; alt=&quot;Average annual enrollment change by era&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The pre-pandemic era now looks like a period of relative stability. From 2017 through 2020, New Mexico lost an average of 1,735 students per year. COVID compressed several years of decline into a single shock. But instead of recovering, the state settled into a post-COVID trajectory where annual losses average 3,999 students, more than double the old pace.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Part of this acceleration is compositional. As the enrollment base shrinks, each year&apos;s loss represents a larger share of a smaller total. A loss of 8,333 students from a base of 306,686 (2.7%) would have been only 2.5% from the 2016 base of 339,613. But the consistent direction matters more than the math: New Mexico has not posted a meaningful enrollment gain in any year since 2016. The single positive year, 2021-22, registered a gain of exactly four students.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;State Senate President Pro Tempore Mimi Stewart captured the policy challenge in remarks on the Gallup virtual school controversy that apply equally to the broader enrollment picture:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;We have got to stop spending this much money on virtual schools when there&apos;s very little regulation.&quot;
-- &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-mexico-school-district-stride-k12-virtual-education-rcna222598&quot;&gt;NBC News, January 2026&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The legislature appropriated &lt;a href=&quot;https://nmeducation.org/new-mexico-legislature-appropriates-4-7-billion-to-k-12-education/&quot;&gt;$4.76 billion to K-12 education&lt;/a&gt; for fiscal year 2025, a $580 million increase from the prior year and roughly 47% of the state&apos;s total budget. Per-pupil spending has risen by approximately $4,100 over the past five years even as the denominator continues to fall. Whether that spending can maintain service quality as enrollment declines below 300,000 is the fiscal question New Mexico will confront over the next decade.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The demographic projections offer no off-ramp. Births continue to fall. Deaths continue to exceed them. Domestic migration remains negative. Every kindergarten class that enters the system is smaller than the one before it. Districts that have already exhausted their enrollment buffers, the 62 now at all-time lows, will face consolidation decisions not in some theoretical future but within two to three budget cycles.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
</content:encoded></item><item><title>Native American Students Fall Below 10% of NM Enrollment</title><link>https://nm.edtribune.com/nm/2025-12-18-nm-native-below-10pct/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://nm.edtribune.com/nm/2025-12-18-nm-native-below-10pct/</guid><description>New Mexico is one of three states where Native American children make up at least 10% of public school enrollment. Or it was. In 2025-26, Native American students slipped to 9.9% of enrollment, the fi...</description><pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded>&lt;p&gt;New Mexico is one of three states where Native American children make up at least 10% of public school enrollment. Or it was. In 2025-26, Native American students slipped to 9.9% of enrollment, the first time their share has fallen below that threshold in available state data. The milestone arrived not through a single catastrophic year but through a six-year erosion that accelerated sharply when a contract dispute in the state&apos;s largest Navajo-serving district displaced thousands of students.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 29,401 Native American students enrolled in 2025-26 represent a loss of 5,602 from the 2019-20 peak of 35,003, a 16.0% decline. That rate of loss is half again as steep as the state&apos;s overall 10.3% enrollment drop over the same period. In a state whose education system is under court order to improve outcomes for Native students, the shrinking count raises a paradox: the population most directly covered by the &lt;a href=&quot;https://web.ped.nm.gov/bureaus/yazzie-martinez-updates/&quot;&gt;Yazzie/Martinez ruling&lt;/a&gt; is getting smaller even as the mandate to serve them grows.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2025-12-18-nm-native-below-10pct-share.png&quot; alt=&quot;Native American share of NM enrollment crossing below 10%&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;A Steady Slide, Then a Cliff&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The decline did not begin suddenly. Native American enrollment peaked at 35,003 in 2019-20, ticked down modestly through 2022-23 (to 33,790, a loss of 1,213 over three years), then fell by 3,188 in a single two-year span from 2022-23 to 2024-25. The 2025-26 count of 29,401 represents another 1,201 lost in one year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The share trajectory tells a related but distinct story. During the COVID years of 2020-21 and 2021-22, Native American students actually gained share (rising to 10.75%) even as their absolute count declined. Total enrollment was falling faster. That cushion evaporated by 2024-25, when the share dipped to 9.98%, and it fell further to 9.85% in 2025-26.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2025-12-18-nm-native-below-10pct-trend.png&quot; alt=&quot;Absolute Native American enrollment trend&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The gap between Native American enrollment losses and statewide losses is substantial. Since 2019-20, the state lost 34,319 students total. Native American students account for 5,602 of that loss, or 16.3%, despite representing only about 10% of the student body. Every other major racial group also declined in absolute terms (white enrollment fell 25.9%, Hispanic fell 6.8%), but Native American students are declining faster than the overall rate while already being a far smaller group.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;The Gallup Rupture&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;No district explains this story more than &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/gallup&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Gallup-McKinley County Schools&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;. In 2025-26, Gallup lost 3,342 students in a single year, dropping from 12,737 to 9,395, a 26.2% decline. Of the 1,201 Native American students lost statewide between 2024-25 and 2025-26, Gallup accounted for 673, or 56%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The cause is specific and documented. In May 2025, the Gallup school board voted to terminate its contract with Stride Inc. (formerly K12), a virtual education provider that had enrolled roughly 4,000 students statewide through the district. The termination, effective June 30, 2025, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gallup-mckinley-county-schools-terminates-contract-with-stridek12-citing-severe-academic-and-legal-violations-302464429.html&quot;&gt;followed allegations of academic and legal violations&lt;/a&gt;, including graduation rates that plunged from 55.8% in 2022 to 27.7% in 2024 and math proficiency scores of just 5.6% for Stride students.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The displacement was swift. Many families continued with Stride through new contracts that Santa Rosa and Chama Valley school districts signed in July 2025, which explains why those two small districts &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-mexico-school-district-stride-k12-virtual-education-rcna222598&quot;&gt;show sudden gains&lt;/a&gt; in Native American enrollment (Santa Rosa went from zero to 164 Native American students; Chama Valley from 21 to 160). Gallup&apos;s loss was partly redistributed, not purely lost to the system.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;It was our students that were taken advantage of... that just makes me sick inside that a company did this on our watch.&quot;
— Superintendent Mike Hyatt, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-mexico-school-district-stride-k12-virtual-education-rcna222598&quot;&gt;NBC News, February 2026&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But the Stride saga is layered over a deeper problem. Even before the contract termination, Gallup&apos;s Native American enrollment was falling: from 9,067 in 2019-20 to 8,027 in 2024-25, a loss of 1,040 that had nothing to do with virtual school reshuffling. The district, which has the &lt;a href=&quot;https://searchlightnm.org/navajo-commission-report-spotlights-inequities-at-troubled-gallup-mckinley-county-schools/&quot;&gt;highest rate of Navajo enrollment in the country&lt;/a&gt; with half its 32 schools on tribal land, has faced persistent criticism over equity. A Navajo Nation Human Rights Commission report found that schools on the reservation received fewer resources than those off tribal land, with some students lacking basic utilities.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&quot;Historically, education&apos;s been a tool to civilize, to assimilate, to acculturate Navajo people.&quot;
— Commission Chair Wendy Greyeyes, &lt;a href=&quot;https://searchlightnm.org/navajo-commission-report-spotlights-inequities-at-troubled-gallup-mckinley-county-schools/&quot;&gt;Searchlight New Mexico&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2025-12-18-nm-native-below-10pct-gallup.png&quot; alt=&quot;Gallup total enrollment showing the Stride cliff&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Beyond Gallup: A Geography of Loss&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Strip Gallup from the data and the statewide decline still amounts to 3,889 students since the 2019-20 peak, a 15.0% loss. The pattern is broad. Of 70 districts that enrolled Native American students in both 2019-20 and 2025-26, 36 lost students and 33 gained them, but the losers are far larger. The top five districts by Native American enrollment (Gallup, &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/albuquerque&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Albuquerque&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/farmington&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Farmington&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, Central Consolidated, and &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/grants&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Grants&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;) hold 69% of all Native American students statewide. The top 10 hold 83%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2025-12-18-nm-native-below-10pct-concentration.png&quot; alt=&quot;Concentration of Native American enrollment&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/central&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Central Consolidated&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, headquartered in Shiprock on the Navajo Nation, has lost 1,422 Native American students since 2019-20 (a 28.0% decline) and its total enrollment has fallen from 5,653 to 4,219. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/zuni&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Zuni Public Schools&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, where 96% of students are Native American, dropped from 1,299 to 975, a 24.9% loss. Albuquerque, the state&apos;s largest district, lost 1,201 Native American students (23.6%), reflecting both the statewide trend and urban migration patterns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;/nm/img/2025-12-18-nm-native-below-10pct-districts.png&quot; alt=&quot;District-level Native American losses&quot; /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Even districts farther from reservation communities show losses. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/rio-rancho&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Rio Rancho&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 31.2% of its Native American students. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/los-lunas&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Los Lunas&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt; lost 32.0%. These are smaller absolute numbers (283 and 173, respectively) but steep proportional declines that suggest the trend extends beyond reservation-adjacent districts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What Shrinking Enrollment Does Not Tell You&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The enrollment data cannot distinguish between families who left public schools and families whose children aged out or were never born. Nationally, the American Indian and Alaska Native child population declined by nearly 134,000 between 2000 and 2023, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.aecf.org/blog/a-look-at-the-latest-population-trends-for-native-children&quot;&gt;according to the Annie E. Casey Foundation&lt;/a&gt;, with the largest losses among children under age five. New Mexico, where Native American children represent roughly 10% of the child population, is one of three states with the highest such concentration, alongside Alaska and South Dakota.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A shrinking base population means some enrollment decline is demographic gravity, not a policy failure or a sign of dissatisfaction. But the rate matters. Native American enrollment in New Mexico fell 16.0% from 2019-20 to 2025-26, while overall enrollment fell 10.3%. If the decline were purely demographic, both rates would track more closely. The gap suggests additional factors at work: families choosing alternatives to public school, pandemic-era disengagement that never reversed, or structural issues in the districts that serve the largest Native populations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The multiracial reclassification that New Mexico introduced in 2022 complicates the picture further. The state went from reporting zero multiracial students to 7,221 in 2024-25. Some portion of students previously counted as Native American may now be classified as multiracial, making the apparent decline partly a measurement artifact. The magnitude is unknowable from enrollment data alone.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;Fewer students, bigger mandate&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;New Mexico&apos;s public education system operates under a 2018 court ruling in the consolidated &lt;a href=&quot;https://web.ped.nm.gov/bureaus/yazzie-martinez-updates/&quot;&gt;Yazzie/Martinez case&lt;/a&gt;, which found the state in violation of its constitution for failing to adequately educate Native American students, English learners, students with disabilities, and economically disadvantaged students. In April 2025, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nmpovertylaw.org/2025/05/27/press-release-victory-for-yazzie-martinez-plaintiffs-judge-orders-collaborative-education-plan-after-7-years-of-community-led-demands/&quot;&gt;a judge found the state still out of compliance&lt;/a&gt; and ordered a new action plan.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The plan the Public Education Department produced drew &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.kunm.org/local-news/2026-02-26/plaintiffs-judge-reject-education-reform-plan&quot;&gt;objections from nearly all 23 tribes&lt;/a&gt; in the state. The All Pueblo Council of Governors wrote that the agency had not consulted them. As of February 2026, &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.kunm.org/local-news/2026-02-26/plaintiffs-judge-reject-education-reform-plan&quot;&gt;plaintiffs and tribal leaders were asking the judge to reject the plan entirely&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The enrollment decline sharpens this tension. The Yazzie mandate requires the state to invest specifically in programs for Native students: culturally relevant curricula, Native language instruction, community-based support. Those programs depend on enrollment-driven funding. As the number of Native American students shrinks, the per-student cost of maintaining specialized services rises, creating pressure to consolidate programs precisely when the court says they should expand. &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/dulce&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Dulce Independent Schools&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, which serves the Jicarilla Apache Nation and lost 104 Native American students (19.3%) since 2019-20, enrolls just 434 Native American students in a remote community with no nearby alternatives.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2&gt;What to Watch&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Gallup situation remains unresolved. In March 2026, the district &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gallup-mckinley-county-schools-school-board-reinstates-stridek12-and-withdraws-all-complaints-filed-against-stride-inc-302701559.html&quot;&gt;announced it had settled with Stride&lt;/a&gt; and reinstated a modified contract through June 2026. Whether the thousands of students who transferred to Santa Rosa and Chama Valley return to Gallup in 2026-27 will determine whether this year&apos;s 3,342-student loss was a one-time redistribution or a permanent fracture in how virtual education is delivered across the Navajo Nation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The deeper question is structural. Six majority-Native American districts (Gallup, Central, Zuni, &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/cuba&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Cuba&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, Dulce, and &lt;a href=&quot;/nm/districts/jemez-valley&quot; class=&quot;district-link&quot;&gt;Jemez Valley&lt;sup&gt;↗&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/a&gt;) enrolled 13,077 Native American students in 2025-26. That number was 16,929 in 2018-19. These districts serve communities where the school is often the largest employer and the primary institution connecting children to their language and culture. Losing nearly a quarter of their enrollment in seven years does not just change a budget line. It changes what a school can be.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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