Eight years ago, the graduation gap between white and Hispanic students in New Mexico stood at 11.5 percentage points -- white students at 74.5%, Hispanic students at 63.0%.

By 2017, that gap had shrunk to 5.9 points. Not because white students fell, but because Hispanic students climbed 7.5 points to 70.5%, the fastest improvement of any racial group in the state.

In a state where Hispanic students make up roughly 60% of the student population, this is the single most important equity story in the graduation data. The gap narrowed not because white students declined, but because Hispanic students improved faster than any other racial group.

The fastest improvers

Hispanic students gained 7.5 percentage points between 2009 and 2017, the largest improvement of any racial subgroup in the state. Black students gained 6.5 points. Asian students gained 5.4. Native American students gained 3.2. White students, starting from a higher base, gained 1.9.

The Hispanic improvement drove the statewide gain. With Hispanic students making up the majority of the student body, their 7.5-point improvement was the primary reason the overall state rate moved from 66.1% to 71.1%.

The shape of the narrowing

The gap did not narrow at a steady pace. It held essentially flat at 11.5 points from 2009 through 2010, then began closing as Hispanic students improved while white rates leveled off.

From 2011 to 2016, the gap closed every single year, from 11.2 points to just 5.0 in 2016. The narrowing was driven from both sides during the mid-decade: white rates declined from their 2011-2012 peak of 77.4-77.5% to 73.6% in 2015, while Hispanic rates held relatively steady.

In 2017, the gap ticked back up to 5.9 points as white rates recovered (76.4%) while Hispanic rates dipped slightly from their 2016 peak of 71.0% to 70.5%. Whether this represents a pause or a reversal is impossible to tell from one year of data.

What 70.5% means

The Hispanic graduation rate of 70.5% is a genuine achievement relative to where it started. But it still means that nearly three in ten Hispanic students in New Mexico do not earn a diploma within four years.

In the most Hispanic state in the country, where Hispanic students are not a minority but the majority, a 70.5% graduation rate has outsized consequences. It affects labor force participation, college enrollment, and earnings across the state's largest demographic group. A state where the majority population graduates at 70% is a state with a structural workforce challenge.

The five-year rate data offers some comfort: Hispanic students gain 4.4 points with an extra year, reaching 75.4% for the 2016 cohort. But even the five-year rate falls short of where white students start with just four years.

The comparison that matters

The Hispanic graduation rate in New Mexico roughly matches the state average because Hispanic students are the state average. When 60% of the student body is Hispanic, the Hispanic rate and the overall rate will track closely.

The more revealing comparison is between New Mexico's Hispanic graduation rate and the national Hispanic rate. Nationally, Hispanic four-year graduation rates were approximately 80% for the Class of 2017, according to NCES data. New Mexico's Hispanic rate of 70.5% trailed the national Hispanic rate by nearly 10 points.

The gap narrowing within New Mexico is real progress. But it has brought Hispanic students in the state to a level that Hispanic students in other states had already surpassed.

Data source

Data from the New Mexico Public Education Department. Graduation rates are 4-year Adjusted Cohort Graduation Rates (ACGR) for cohorts 2009-2017.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

library(nmschooldata)
library(dplyr)

grad_data <- bind_rows(lapply(2009:2017, function(y) fetch_graduation(y, use_cache = TRUE)))
grad_data$grad_rate <- grad_data$grad_rate * 100

gap <- grad_data |>
  filter(is_state == TRUE, subgroup %in% c("white", "hispanic")) |>
  select(end_year, subgroup, grad_rate) |>
  tidyr::pivot_wider(names_from = subgroup, values_from = grad_rate) |>
  mutate(gap = round(white - hispanic, 1))

cat("2009 gap:", gap$gap[gap$end_year == 2009], "pp\n")
cat("2017 gap:", gap$gap[gap$end_year == 2017], "pp\n")
cat("Hispanic 2009:", gap$hispanic[gap$end_year == 2009], "\n")
cat("Hispanic 2017:", gap$hispanic[gap$end_year == 2017], "\n")
cat("Hispanic improvement:", round(gap$hispanic[gap$end_year == 2017] - gap$hispanic[gap$end_year == 2009], 1), "pp\n")